Summits of the Group of Seven rarely change the course of a war on their own. The gathering in France was no exception, and yet it did something the previous year of fighting had not. By closing ranks around a cautious push for negotiation, the leaders of the world's richest democracies pried open a narrow window for diplomacy over Ukraine. The opening is small, and it could close as quickly as it appeared, but for the first time in a while there is something real to talk about.
What changed at the table
The shift was less a grand plan than a change of tone. Standing alongside Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine's president, the European leaders signalled that they were ready to back a serious effort to stop the shooting, provided any deal did not amount to surrender. Ursula von der Leyen, who heads the European Commission, and Antonio Costa, who chairs the European Council, were keen to show that Europe would help shape the terms rather than watch from the sidelines.
The American factor
Hanging over the talks was Washington. President Trump has spent months promoting a peace plan of his own, and his appetite for a quick settlement has unnerved Europeans as much as it has encouraged them. They worry that an agreement struck in haste could reward Russia for its invasion and leave Ukraine exposed. The G7 statement was, in part, an attempt to keep a seat at the table and to make sure any bargain carries conditions Kyiv can live with.
Why now
Several pressures have converged. Both armies are worn down by a grinding war that has moved the front line very little at enormous cost. Western budgets are strained, public patience is thinner than it was, and a widening crisis in the Middle East has pulled attention and resources elsewhere. None of this makes peace likely, but it makes the idea of talks harder to dismiss than it was even a few months ago.
